Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts “gigantic” refund checks for Americans in the 2026 tax filing season, driven by retroactive tax cuts in President Donald Trump’s Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed in July.
Speaking on the “All-In Podcast,” Bessent—who also acts as IRS commissioner—noted that the bill’s provisions apply from the start of 2025. Since most workers kept their old withholding rates, many overpaid taxes and could now claim refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 per household, depending on earners. “I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because working Americans did not change their withholdings,” he said.
This aligns with a December 17 report from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, which estimates OBBBA slashed individual taxes by $144 billion in 2025. Up to $100 billion of that may flow back as larger refunds, potentially boosting averages by $1,000. The group explains that unadjusted IRS withholding tables left workers overpaying throughout the year, delaying benefits until filing time.
Key OBBBA cuts boosting refunds include hikes to the child tax credit and standard deduction, a raised SALT cap, and new deductions for seniors, auto loan interest, tips, and overtime pay.