Tokyo—Japan dismissed a US intelligence report on Thursday that described its potential response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan as a “significant shift” in policy. The disagreement could strain an upcoming summit between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and US President Donald Trump.
Takaichi’s late-November comments in parliament suggested Tokyo might respond militarily to a hypothetical assault on Taiwan, sparking outrage from Beijing, which claims the island as its territory.
While Takaichi insists her words align with Japan’s existing policies, the US annual intelligence report—released Wednesday—called them a sharp break from past leaders’ rhetoric.Japan’s top spokesperson, Minoru Kihara, pushed back at a briefing: “The assessment that there has been a major shift is not accurate.” He noted that Tokyo’s stance on an “existential crisis”—the context of Takaichi’s remarks—remains consistent with precedent.
The rift complicates Thursday’s summit, already tense due to Trump’s calls for Japan and allies to deploy escort ships to the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted by the Iran war.
Sino-Japanese ties have hit a decade-low since Takaichi’s statement, with Beijing advising against travel to Japan and halting key exports. The US report predicts China will ramp up such coercion through 2026 to punish Tokyo and warn others against similar Taiwan rhetoric. It adds that Beijing has no current plans to invade Taiwan in 2027, preferring non-military control.Last year, the Pentagon warned that China is gearing up to seize Taiwan by force if needed by 2027—the centenary of its People’s Liberation Army—while honing invasion options.