Ishiba goes into pre-election damage control mode after Eto’s rice gaffe.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba fired his agriculture minister after an impromptu comment about rice gifts infuriated a populace already doubting the Japanese leader’s ability to control skyrocketing prices.

With public support at an all-time low after a string of slush fund scandals that rocked the ruling party, Ishiba first seemed worried that firing farm minister Taku Eto would embolden the opposition and cause a series of negative consequences for his administration.

But since Ishiba had already lost the party’s majority in the lower house and a Diet election was approaching, Eto was ultimately pushed out in an attempt to minimize the harm.

Eto’s resignation has come at a particularly bad time, according to ruling party members, and political analysts caution that Ishiba’s premiership could be in jeopardy if the Liberal Democratic Party does poorly in the House of Councillors election.

Ishiba is risking his future by appointing Shinjiro Koizumi, a youthful LDP leadership candidate, as the new agriculture minister.

Ishiba’s already precarious position will be further strained by the 44-year-old son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s poor performance.

“I want Mr. Koizumi to exhibit strong leadership as we face a mountain of challenges, such as surging rice prices, and to give his all to the job,” Ishiba said to reporters following the appointment.

At first, Ishiba was reluctant to replace Eto, who faced a chorus of criticism when an attempt at a joke fell flat at a weekend fundraising event.

“I’m not buying rice. Thanks to my supporters giving me plenty of it, I have so much of it in my house that I could sell it,” Eto said, a comment widely slammed as tone-deaf when the public is straining under rampant rice price inflation.

Ishiba, who himself has experience serving as agriculture minister, reportedly told his aides that the post is a “tricky” undertaking. Past departures of those holding the farm portfolio have often boded ill for the sitting prime minister.

But Eto’s future in the position became untenable when major opposition parties jointly went on the offensive, threatening a no-confidence motion against him.

Such a motion, even if non-binding, would still send a strong message at a time when Ishiba desperately needs support from parts of the opposition bloc to pass bills and budgets and ensure the smooth functioning of his minority government.

“The cards are being stacked against the prime minister,” said Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University.

“The rice issue could not have come at a worse time. It has further shaken the foundation of the government,” he said, adding Ishiba’s inability to properly resolve it is likely to deepen anti-LDP sentiment.

Despite Ishiba’s stated goal of restoring public confidence damaged by a spate of political funds scandals in the LDP, Eto’s gaffe has renewed scrutiny of the leader.

A senior ruling party member said of Eto’s gaffe and subsequent resignation, “There is no doubt that this will become a debilitating blow” to the government.

Opposition parties appear eager to seize the opportunity to tighten the screws on Ishiba, with a senior executive of the Democratic Party for the People firing the first shot by demanding Eto’s swift resignation.

Hours after the minister’s departure, the head of the DPP, which has deepened policy coordination with the ruling camp while rejecting the idea of formally joining it, pressured Ishiba to the point where he promised to act on high rice prices.

“Are you going to take responsibility as prime minister if rice prices don’t fall into the 3,000 yen range?” DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki asked Ishiba during a one-on-one debate, prompting him to vow to push them below the 4,000 yen threshold as soon as possible.

Before the latest turmoil, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Ishiba’s immediate predecessor, said Tamaki could be a future candidate for premier, suggesting that LDP kingpins have lost confidence in the incumbent.

Within his own cabinet, Ishiba is expected to count on the personal popularity of Koizumi, who political experts say is a viable future prime minister, to make amends for Eto’s failure.

“For the prime minister, Mr Koizumi may be a powerful rival but could also be a savior,” Iwasaki said.