Japan should raise defense capabilities to counter assertive China: expert

Japan should raise its defense capabilities to a level that would prevent an assertive China from using force in the future, while making its non hostile stance clear, an international relations expert said recently before parliament  chooses a new prime minister.

The buildup of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces was long considered sensitive both domestically and among Asian nations that suffered from Japan’s wartime aggression, but it has been called for domestically in recent years amid growing security concerns over China and North Korea.

“A certain level of defense capabilities is needed for peace and stability in the region because China might use or threaten to use military force if they think they can beat other countries easily,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, in an interview with Kyodo News.

Japan needs to bolster its deterrence, but at the same time should keep sending messages to China that Tokyo has no hostile intentions,” he added.

China’s defense spending in 2012 was one-sixth that of the United States, but by 2024 that figure had risen to one-third, according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, which cited an estimate that put it at about $318 billion.

In September, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin voiced concerns about the Japanese Defense Ministry’s request for a record budget of 8.8 trillion yen ($60 billion) for fiscal 2026.

The figure is in line with Japan’s defense buildup plan totaling 43 trillion yen for five years from fiscal 2023.

Under its war-renouncing Constitution, Japan permits the use of force only for its own self-defense, placing restrictions on its actions overseas. Its SDFs have engaged in peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions abroad.

Japan’s buildup has gone beyond its defense-oriented policy, Jiang said, urging Tokyo to “reflect on its history of aggression and respect the security concerns of its Asian neighbors and the rest of the international community.”

Watanabe, also an adjunct fellow for the CSIS, said Tokyo cannot simply take Beijing at its word, adding that Japan should build up its defense capabilities to a level that would make China think twice, otherwise it will remain vulnerable.

He added that economic relations also play an important role, noting that China has invested a considerable amount of capital in Japan and would face massive losses if it were to launch a war.

In the interview, Watanabe also touched on Japan’s broader foreign policy stance, saying Tokyo should balance its relations with major powers while maintaining its long-held diplomatic principles in other regions.

“Now that we don’t know how America will turn out, Europe and Japan should talk, maintain a reasonable relationship with China, reassure America, and make sure America doesn’t head in the wrong direction,” Watanabe said.

“That’s what Japan, South Korea, Australia and Europe want to do in this era.”

Asked about Japan’s recent decision not to recognize Palestinian statehood for the time being, Watanabe described it as a well-considered balancing act.

The Japanese government has repeatedly said recognizing a Palestinian state is not a matter of if but when, but critics say Tokyo is just following the position of the United States, Tokyo’s most important ally, while nations such as Britain, Canada and France have decided to recognize a Palestinian state.

“Japan hasn’t followed suit, especially with regard to the issue of Palestine. You see that if you look at U.N. vote records,” Watanabe said. “Japan has taken a pro-Arab stance for a long time,” though “Israel is also an important country for Japan.”

Japan apparently concluded that it was the time to go along with the United States, due largely to President Donald Trump’s influence, he added. Trump brokered a cease-fire deal between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas earlier this month.

Overall, Watanabe said he is not concerned about the direction of Japan’s diplomacy.

“It is making significant positive changes, especially in terms of how the country can contribute to regional stability.”