Teetering on the Brink: Israel and Iran Stare Down a Perilous Precipice

Israel is bracing for potential Iranian reprisal in an atmosphere of escalated tension and unpredictability after a string of major military operations, including the recent killings of prominent Hamas and Hezbollah figures. Diplomats from several countries are frantically trying to defuse the situation and avert a full-scale war as concerns of a wider regional conflict grow.

The stakes are extremely high, with both sides ready for imminent confrontation, and a misstep may have fatal repercussions. In addition to endangering regional peace, this developing crisis has serious ramifications for global security.

KEY NOTE TO LOOK OUT FOR

Tensions escalating between Israel and Iran

• Israel is bracing for potential retaliation from Iran following the assassination of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, which Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for.
• The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week has heightened alarm among Arab and U.S. officials about the potential for a larger regional confrontation

Diplomats working to contain the situation

• Diplomats across the Middle East are working to manage rising tensions between Israel and Iran amid escalating fears of a broader conflict in the region.
• President Biden convened his national security team and spoke with King Abdullah II of Jordan, while foreign ministers from Islamic countries plan to gather in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday
• The U.S., U.K., France, Canada, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Turkey, and Jordan have advised their citizens to exit Lebanon as swiftly as possible

Potential Iranian retaliation

• Iran has promised a harsh response to the assassination of Haniyeh, which many believe could happen sooner rather than later.
• Former CIA director and U.S. CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus believes Iran will retaliate, as it is an “enormous blow to Iran’s honor” and a “huge intelligence failure”.
• Potential Iranian targets could include military sites, critical infrastructure, or major ports, which would prompt a massive Israeli response

Avoiding a full-blown war

• Both Iran and Israel would try to avoid a full-blown war for fear of the destruction it could bring to both countries.
• However, the damage to both sides would be “very, very substantial” if a war were to break out.

Ongoing conflict in Gaza

• In Gaza, health authorities reported that over 70 individuals lost their lives due to Israeli strikes over the weekend, raising the total death toll in the conflict to nearly 40,000.
• An Israeli airstrike on two schools in Gaza City on Sunday resulted in at least 30 fatalities, according to health officials in the enclave